Unvaccinated Adults are Now More Than Three Times as Likely to Lean Republican than Democratic

A new analysis by the KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor shows that Republicans and Republican-minded independents, who make up 41% of adults, now make up 60% of the unvaccinated adult population across the country, and that political partisanship is a stronger predictor of whether someone is is vaccinated as any measured demographic factor.

While COVID-19 vaccination rates have increased significantly in all groups since the spring, uptake has been slower for those who are Republican or lean. As a result, the shrinking unvaccinated population has become increasingly Republican over time, with unvaccinated adults now more than three times more likely to become Republican leaner than Democratic ones.

The analysis looked at differences in a number of demographic factors, including race and ethnic identity, age, education, geographic density, and insurance status.

Taking other factors into account, a Republican is 26 percentage points more likely than a Democrat to remain unvaccinated. This gap is larger than the gap between racial and ethnic groups, people with different educational levels, insured and uninsured, different age groups, or people living in rural versus urban areas.

The analysis also examines differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated Republicans. Unvaccinated Republicans are more likely than vaccinated to believe that the news is exaggerating the severity of the pandemic (88% vs. 54%) and that vaccination is a personal choice (96% vs. 73%).

Such views pose significant challenges to efforts to further increase adult vaccine intake, and potentially the uptake of booster and eligibility vaccines for children, the analysis said.