Why it’s essential to proceed to flatten the curve

In a recent study, data was used to assess the association between daily use of COVID-19 hospital beds in intensive and non-intensive care units and all-cause mortality from COVID-19, supporting efforts to flatten the curve.

Social distancing and the use of masks are important preventive measures in the fight against COVID-19. Efforts to “flatten the curve” reduce the number of infected people and take the pressure off the health system. But how does a flattening of the curve affect all-cause mortality? In a recent study, researchers examined the association between daily use of ICU and non-ICU hospital beds by COVID-19 patients and all-cause mortality from COVID-19.

The data was obtained from the University of Minnesota's COVID-19 Hospitalization Tracking Project. The researchers observed 1,056 cases in 23 states between March and June 2020. The study monitored the daily use of beds in intensive care units and non-intensive care units and the number of COVID-19 deaths over the following seven days. ICU and ICU bed usage was determined as a percentage of current COVID-19 patients for the total number of ICU and ICU beds.

Increased COVID-19 cases were associated with increased mortality

The researchers said the average number of COVID-19-related ICU cases was 19.6% and non-ICU-related cases was 5.5%. The study analysis concluded that an increase of 17 beds in the intensive care unit for COVID-19 patients correlated with a 2.84 point increase in deaths over the next week. By comparison, an increase of 130 beds outside the ICU was equivalent to a 17.84 point increase in COVID-19 death rates.

The study results confirm that higher mortality rates are due to increased numbers of hospitalizations both in and out of the ICU. The implications of the research support the importance of efforts to flatten the curve to avoid overloading health systems.

By scientifically identifying the link between the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients and subsequent deaths, the data supports the need to take precautions against COVID-19 as countries begin and resume their economic activities. The results suggest that efforts to flatten the curve should continue to reduce the burden on the health system and, ultimately, COVID-19 mortality.

Written by Melody Sayrany

Image by Silvia Tormo from Pixabay

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