Clinical score for predicting COVID outcomes

A recent study presents a new metric for predicting COVID-19 outcomes.

As the world grapples with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, advances in research bring clarity, promise, and hope in dealing with this crisis. Recently, a group of researchers from the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland have developed a forecast point system that can be used to predict COVID-19 results. Your model for assessing the course of COVID-19 disease depends on measuring two molecules of the immune system: IL-6 and IL-10.

IL-6 is responsible for inflammation in the body, which can lead to symptoms such as fever and organ damage. While IL-10 suppresses the inflammation that occurs in diseases like COVID-19. By monitoring the ratio of IL-6 to IL-10 that individuals produce, researchers were able to determine the severity of COVID-19 disease.

The data included 80 COVID-19 positive patients who were randomly selected from a list of hospital records. Eighty-eight percent of the participants required oxygen assistance, and some were critically ill in the intensive care unit. The study took place over a period of seven days. The patients' clinical symptoms were monitored and blood samples were drawn every two days to analyze IL-6 and IL-10 levels. Your disease progression was classified as “unchanged”, “improved” or “rejected”. From observations of patient symptoms and blood data on the IL-6: IL-10 ratio, the researchers created the “Dublin-Boston” point system to show the likelihood that a patient will develop worse symptoms.

Using the Dublin-Boston Score to predict COVID-19 outcomes can help develop therapies for sick patients.

The researchers were able to show how monitoring the IL-6: IL-10 ratio correlated with the clinical outcome. Based on the Dublin-Boston Score System, they found that monitoring the production of IL-6: IL-10 every four days was ideal for accurately identifying the patient's risk of developing worse symptoms. Because COVID-19 patients have shown increases in IL-6 and decreases in IL-10 in the past, doctors can use this data to tell at what stage of the disease they occur.

Despite the benefit of a carefully organized study, researchers only monitored a small number of patients and their results have not yet been replicated. Another consideration is the biological limitation of monitoring IL-6: IL-10 ratios. Although IL-6 can cause organ damage through inflammation, its role in the body is still considered necessary for proper immune function. As far as we know today, health professionals must exercise caution in developing therapies that target the IL-6: IL-10 ratio. The goal is not to reduce IL-6, but to restore a balanced amount of IL-6 and IL-10 in the body.

If successful, healthcare professionals could use the Dublin-Boston Score to provide an early mortality estimate for a COVID-19 patient. This increased willingness could help address a number of issues: adequate care at appropriate times and better allocation of patient resources when needed. In addition to correctly predicting COVID outcomes, the Dublin-Boston Score could also be used to assess how well future treatments could work based on IL-6: IL-10 levels.

Written by Melody Sayrany

References:

O. J. Mcelvaney, B. D. Hobbs, D. Qiao, O. F. Mcelvaney, M. Moll, N. L. Mcevoy, N. G. Mcelvaney (2020). A linear prognostic score based on the ratio of interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 predicts the results of COVID-19. EBioMedicine, 61, 103026. doi: 10.1016 / j.ebiom.2020.103026

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