KFF Well being Monitoring Ballot – September 2020: High Points in 2020 Election, The Position of Misinformation, and Views on A Potential Coronavirus Vaccine
Main results:
- The economy has now secured a spot as the main theme in the 2020 elections. A third of registered voters (32%) say this will be the most important issue when deciding on the election of the president, followed by the coronavirus outbreak (20%). , Criminal justice and policing (16%) and racial relations (14%). There is a strong party-political divide: Republican voters prioritize the economy, followed by criminal justice and policing, and Democratic voters prioritize the coronavirus, followed by racial relations. The proportion of voters who say health care will be the number one issue when voting has dropped 16 percentage points since February (from 26% to 10%), and outside of the coronavirus, health care is now fifth as a voter question ( and ranks 3rd for Democrats).
- Given recent protests following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and President Trump's focus on urban violence as an election issue, the proportion of voters who now say violence by demonstrators is a "big problem" in the US is has increased by 15 percentage points since June (52% versus 37%). The increase in the proportion claiming that violence by demonstrators is a major problem is particularly large among Republican and independent voters, as well as white voters (who are mostly driven by white Republicans rather than Democrats).
- Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) asked states to prepare for distribution of a coronavirus vaccine by November 1, two days before the 2020 election. Most adults (81%), including the majority of the partisans, don't believe that a coronavirus vaccine will be widespread in the U.S. before the November presidential election.
- Many (62%) fear that political pressure from the Trump administration will cause the FDA to approve a coronavirus vaccine without making sure it is safe and effective – including 85% of Democrats and 61% of Independents. Fewer Republicans (35%) express this concern. Overall, about four in ten adults say that both the FDA (39%) and the CDC (42%) pay "too much attention" to politics when it comes to reviewing and approving treatments for coronaviruses, or guidelines and recommendations to surrender.
- The latest KFF Health Tracking Survey shows that public attitudes towards the coronavirus outbreak have changed. More than six months into the pandemic, around four in ten (38%) say "the worst is yet to come" (almost half of 74% in early April), while 38% say "the worst is behind us" (Von 13% in April).
- Almost half of adults have at least one misunderstanding about how to prevent and treat coronavirus, including one in five who say wearing a face mask is harmful and one in four who says hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment for coronavirus. Three in four Republicans have at least one misunderstanding, compared to 46% of Independents and one in four Democrats. At the same time, trust in some official sources of coronavirus information has decreased since April, including a particularly sharp drop in Republican trust in Dr. Anthony Fauci and the CDC.
A third of voters say the economy is the number one issue for the 2020 elections. Healthcare ranks lower
Less than two months before the November 2020 elections, a third of registered voters (32%) say the economy will be the number one issue when deciding who will be elected. About a fifth of voters say the coronavirus outbreak (20%) is the main problem, while about one in seven say criminal justice and policing (16%) or racial relations (14%) are the main problem. Fewer voters choose health care (10%) or immigration (4%) as a top priority when deciding on their presidential election.
Figure 1: Voters say the economy is the main theme for the 2020 presidential election
The economy is overwhelmingly the main topic for Republican voters. More than half (53%) choose it as the top issue in deciding who to vote for the president, and it's also the top issue for independent voters (29%). . Almost four in ten Democratic voters (36%) say the coronavirus outbreak is the number one issue when deciding on their vote, followed by racial relations (27%). Few Republican voters say the coronavirus outbreak (4%) or racial relations (2%) are their main topic in the election.
Figure 2: Democratic voters prioritize coronavirus Republicans prioritize the economy in the president's election decision
The most recent KFF Health Tracking survey was conducted shortly after the shooting of Jacob Blake by police in Kenosha, Wisconsin (August 28 through September 3) and amid the nation facing the health and economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic had to fight. Alongside coronavirus, which is the second most popular voting issue, health care in general (which dominated the presidential campaign in early 2020) is a priority for voters and now lags behind business, coronavirus, criminal justice and the police. and racial relations. Democrats continue to prioritize health care more than independents or Republicans, ranking it third (connected to the economy and behind the coronavirus pandemic and racial relations).
Figure 3: Alongside coronavirus, healthcare is no longer a major concern for voters when deciding on the 2020 presidential election
Swing voters
The economy is also now the main issue for swing voters, the crucial group of voters who say they will "likely" vote for either President Trump or former Vice President Biden but have not yet made up their mind or say they do are still "undecided" about who they will vote for (24% of voters are "swing voters").
Swing Voters
A majority of voters have already decided who to vote for in the 2020 presidential election. More than a third of voters (35%) say they “will definitely vote for President Trump” and four in ten (38%). say they "will definitely vote for Joe Biden". However, there is a crucial group of voters, “swing voters” who have not yet made up their minds. When asked how they want to vote in 2020, around a quarter (24%) of registered voters say they are either “undecided” or not knowing who they will vote (6%), “probably voting for President Trump” (8%) or “will probably vote for Joe Biden” (10%) but haven't made up my mind yet.
About a third (35%) of swing voters say the economy is their main topic, followed by criminal justice and policing (17%), the coronavirus outbreak (15%), and racial relations (14%). Roughly one in ten swing voters (11%) say health care is their main topic, while few swing voters (2%) choose immigration as their main topic.
Figure 4: Swing voters say the economy is the number one topic when deciding who will be elected
Recent events could shift voters' priorities
The recent police shootings of unarmed Black Americans and subsequent protests have resonated with voters, with criminal justice, police and racial relations being among the top electoral issues depending on the party's identification. About a quarter of Democratic voters (27%) say racial relations will be the main issue when deciding who will be elected president, while a similar proportion of Republicans (23%) say criminal justice and policing will be the main issue her voice.
In addition, a large majority of voters see racism, police violence and violence by demonstrators in the US as at least "somewhat problematic". About six in ten (58%) say racism is a "big problem", while about four in ten say the same thing about police violence against the public (43%). Over the past three months, the proportion of voters who say violence by demonstrators is a “big problem” has increased by 15 percentage points, up 52% from 37% in June. This is because national attention has focused on protests and acts of violence in cities like Kenosha, Wisconsin and Portland, Oregon, and President Trump has made combating urban violence a central theme of his campaign.
Figure 5: Majorities say racism, violent protests and police violence are problems in the US today
Party political divisions in perceptions of these issues, particularly views on the violence caused by demonstrators, have also shifted since June. While a large majority of Democratic voters and six in 10 independent voters continue to say racism is a "big problem" in the US today, compared with 33% of Republican voters. Now eight in ten Republican voters (81%) and half of independent voters (52%) say protestor violence is a “big problem”, compared with 62% of Republican voters and 35% of independent voters in June. A quarter of Democratic voters say this is a “big problem” – relatively unchanged since June (21%).
| Percent of voters who say any of the following is a "big problem" in the US today: | Party ID | ||
| Democratic voters | Independent voters | Republican voters | |
| KFF Health Tracking Poll – September 2020 | |||
| racism | 84% | 58% | 33% |
| Police violence against the public | 67 | 39 | 20th |
| Violence by protesters | 25th | 52 | 81 |
| KFF Health Tracking Poll – June 2020 | |||
| racism | 82 | 57 | 25th |
| Police violence against the public | 63 | 38 | 13 |
| Violence by protesters | 21st | 35 | 62 |
| Percentage point change (June-September) | |||
| racism | +2 | +1 | +8 |
| Police violence against the public | +4 | +1 | +7 |
| Violence by protesters | +4 | +17 | +19 |
This shift is notable for all white voters, who now have a similar percentage of white voters and say that protest violence (56%) and racism (53%) are each a "major problem" in the US today. The proportion of white voters who say violence by demonstrators is a “big problem” has increased 17 percentage points since June, largely driven by the views of white Republicans and independents rather than a change among white Democratic voters. About four in ten (37%) white voters say police violence against the public is a major problem.
Health care as a coordination problem
In the first few months of 2020, and during the height of the primary democratic competition, health care was consistently rated as one of the main issues for voters and as the main issue for democratic primary voters in all of the seventeen democratic competitions analyzed by KFF researchers. However, the latest KFF poll found that voter priorities for the past six months have been changing with the coronavirus outbreak, business closings due to the spread of the virus and the ensuing recession, police shooting of unarmed black Americans, and violence postponed in connection with protests. When asked what health care needs to vote on, voters provide answers related to improving access to health insurance (18%), such as: B. General coverage, health care costs (15%) including affordability and cost of prescribing drugs, the coronavirus outbreak (8%) and Medicare or elderly concerns (7%).
Figure 6: Cost and access remain top health concerns
One health problem that seems to be no longer resonating with voters, particularly Republican voters, is the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010. The latest KFF Health Tracking poll found that 5% of Republican voters had responses related to the Offer rejection or abolition of ACA as top health concern (compared to 29% of Republican voters who said so before the 2016 presidential election).
Figure 7: Few Republican voters offer to repeal Affordable Care Bill as a major health concern for their vote
A recent analysis by the Republican National Convention found that the ACA was mentioned only once during the 2020 Convention, compared to 13 mentions in 2016 and 23 mentions in 2012. The future of the ACA is still in doubt as the Supreme Court case The US will hear arguments for Texas v California's trial against the constitutionality of the law, a week after the November election.
General views on the 2010 Health Reform Act remain similar to July, with half of the public (49%) remaining positive about the ACA, while 42% are unfavorable (up 36%). The increase in the proportion of an unfavorable opinion was mainly due to independents (41% now view it as unfavorable, up from 35% in July), while a majority of Democrats remain in favor of the law and most Republicans continue to hold unfavorable views, with 79% this is what they say they have an unfavorable opinion and show that it is still unpopular among Republicans even if it is no longer a hot topic in the 2020 election. KFF has followed the ACA's views since April 2010.
Figure 8: Public opinion on the Affordable Care Act is largely stable, with half evaluating the Act positively
Half of the voters say Biden has a better approach on most health issues
At least half of voters believe that former Vice President Biden has a better approach than President Trump to solving a variety of health problems, including making decisions about women's reproductive health decisions and services (55%) that will shape the future of the Determine ACA (54%)), maintain protection for people with pre-existing health conditions (52%), and ensure access to health care and insurance (52%). On all of these health care issues, a greater proportion of voters say Biden has a better approach than President Trump. Voters disagree on which candidate has the best approach to lowering the cost of healthcare for individuals and protecting people from surprise medical bills. Almost half of voters say Biden has the better approach than four in ten who say President Trump does.
When it comes to overseeing the development and distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine, voters are more divided, with Biden having a slight but statistically insignificant advantage. Around half (49%) of voters say Biden has the better approach to the COVID-19 vaccine, while 44% say President Trump does. Voters also disagree on who has the better approach to cutting prescription drug costs, an issue that President Trump has focused on throughout his presidency.
Figure 9: Half of voters say Biden has a better approach to solving most health problems
As expected, views on which candidate has the better approach are largely falling into the party lines, with the vast majority of Democratic voters saying Biden has the better approach (93%) and nine in ten Republican voters (91%) saying President Trump has the better approach. Independent voters are evenly split, with around four in ten saying each candidate has the better approach to developing and distributing a vaccine.
| Percent who say everyone has the better approach to monitoring a COVID-19 vaccine development and distribution: | Democratic voters | Independent voters | Republican voters |
| Donald Trump | 5% | 43% | 91% |
| Joe Biden | 93 | 44 | 4th |
| Don't know (vol.) | 2 | 10 | 3 |
Few are expecting a coronavirus vaccine before the November elections
On September 2, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned states that they should be ready to distribute a coronavirus vaccine by November 1, two days before the 2020 elections. The most recent KFF poll found that most adults (81%) – including the majority of Democrats (90%), Independents (84%), and Republicans (75%) – don't believe that a vaccine for coronavirus in the US has been found before the presidential elections in November will be widespread. If a coronavirus vaccine was actually approved by the FDA and made available to all and made available free of charge prior to the election, only four in ten adults (42%) say they want to be vaccinated, while a small majority (54%) say they want to be vaccinated %)) say they do not want to be vaccinated in these circumstances. In particular, half of Democrats (50%) say they do would Get vaccinated if a vaccine was available before the election, as the majority of Independents (56%) and Republicans (60%) say would not Get the vaccine.
Figure 10: Most don't expect a vaccine before the November election, only four in ten would get a vaccine if it were available beforehand
A majority of the public (62%) are concerned that political pressure from the Trump administration will cause the FDA to approve a coronavirus vaccine without ensuring that it is safe and effective. A third of adults (33%) say they are "very concerned". The FDA will rush to approve a vaccine while another 29% say they are "a little concerned". Among the partisans, 85% of Democrats and six in 10 independents (61%) say they are concerned that the FDA will approve a vaccine, while fewer Republicans (35%) express that concern. In particular, women are more likely than men to say they fear the FDA will approve a vaccine (70% versus 55%).
Figure 11: About six in ten adults are concerned The FDA is rushing to approve a vaccine due to political pressure
Public views on the coronavirus outbreak could change
More than six months after a pandemic that killed more than 180,000 Americans, the public is divided over whether the worst is behind us or is yet to come. This follows a Republican national convention praising President Trump for his handling of COVID-19 and for conflicting information about a vaccine availability this fall. Around four in ten (38% each) say "the worst is behind us" or "the worst is yet to come". The proportion of adults who believe the worst is yet to come has fallen by 22 percentage points since July.
Figure 12: Fewer adults now say the worst coronavirus outbreak is yet to come
Among the partisans, a majority of Republicans (56%) say the worst coronavirus outbreak is behind us (up from 31% in July). While a majority of Democrats (58%) say the worst is yet to come, the proportion expecting the worst has fallen 21 percentage points since July.
Figure 13: Six out of ten Democrats say the worst of coronavirus is yet to come. A similar proportion of Republicans say the worst is behind us
In addition, President Trump now gets slightly better marks for his handling of the coronavirus, with the proportion of the public approving of his treatment of the outbreak in the US increasing 9 percentage points since July 2020. A slight majority (55%) still disapprove of his treatment for the current coronavirus outbreak (up from 62% in July).
Figure 14: President Trump receives more positive marks when dealing with coronavirus In the US, the majority is still rejected
The public is divided on who to trust for coronavirus information. There are some misunderstandings
CDC and Fauci are the most trusted sources of information, but trust in both has become increasingly biased
About two in three adults say they see Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases (68%), and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have at least a good level of trust. (67%) to provide reliable information about the coronavirus. About half say Dr. Deborah Birx, the Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the Coronavirus Task Force of the White House (53%), as a reliable source of information. Half of the public say they trust Joe Biden to provide reliable information about the coronavirus, while about four in ten say the same about President Trump (52% versus 40%).
Figure 15: Most adults have at least a reasonable level of trust in Dr. Fauci, the CDC and Dr. Birx to provide reliable information about coronavirus
While the majority of partisans continue to trust the CDC, there are large partisan differences in trusting other sources, with Democrats more likely to trust Joe Biden and Dr. Anthony Fauci and Republicans tend to trust President Trump and Dr. Trust Deborah Birx.
| Percent who say they trust each of the following much or a fair amount to provide reliable information about coronavirus: | total | Party ID | ||
| Democrats | Independent | republican | ||
| Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases | 68% | 86% | 71% | 48% |
| The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC | 67 | 74 | 70 | 60 |
| Dr. Deborah Birx, the Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the Coronavirus Task Force at the White House | 53 | 44 | 54 | 70 |
| Joe Biden | 52 | 91 | 48 | 16 |
| President Trump | 40 | 8th | 37 | 86 |
In particular, the proportion of adults who trust the CDC to provide reliable information has fallen by 16 percentage points since April. Likewise, the proportion of adults who state that Dr. Trusting Anthony Fauci, down 10 percentage points since April. Confidence in the CDC has declined among partisans since April, although the decline has been particularly sharp among Republicans. 60% now say they trust the CDC, a 30 percentage point decrease from April when 90% trusted the CDC to provide reliable information. Likewise, the trust of Dr. Anthony Fauci fell sharply among the Republicans. While the proportion of Democrats who say they are Dr. Trusting Fauci, up slightly since April (86% versus 80%), is the percentage of Democrats that Dr. Trust Fauci, down 29 percentage points (48% versus 77%).
Figure 16: Trust in the CDC and Dr. Anthony Fauci has been going down since April
The public mostly knows the key facts about coronavirus, although some misconceptions remain
A large majority of the public (87%) are aware that there is no FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus and that children under the age of 18 can transmit coronavirus to others (88%). Similarly, eight in ten (80%) know there is no cure for the coronavirus and that wearing a face mask helps limit the spread of the coronavirus (81%). Three in four adults (77%) know that wearing a face mask is harmless However, one in five adults in particular says about their health that they wear a face mask Is harmful. While 55% of adults say hydroxychloroquine is not Effective Treatment For COVID-19 Says One In Four (24%) is an effective treatment. Almost half of adults (48%) have at least one misunderstanding about coronavirus prevention and treatment and give at least one of these questions wrong.
Figure 17: Most adults know the key facts about coronavirus, although some misunderstandings remain
There are some notable differences among the partisans on some key facts about the coronavirus. While the majority of partisans say wearing a face mask is safe, Republicans (36%) are more likely than Democrats (7%) and Independents (17%) to say they wear a face mask is harmful. While the majority of partisans say wearing a face mask will help limit the spread of the coronavirus, Republicans (32%) are more likely than Democrats (3%) and Independents (17%) to say masks do not help limit the spread. Perhaps because of the difference between partisans whom they trust for reliable information, the biggest partisan void is in hydroxychloroquine, which President Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus. Most Democrats (78%) and Independents (57%) say it's not an effective treatment for COVID-19. However, half of Republicans (51%) say it is an effective treatment.
| total | Party ID | |||
| Democrats | Independent | republican | ||
| Percent who believe in at least one misunderstanding: | 48% | 25% | 46% | 73% |
| Percent who say: | ||||
| … Hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment for COVID-19 | 24 | 8th | 20th | 51 |
| … Wearing a face mask is harmful to your health | 20th | 7th | 17th | 36 |
| … Is there a cure for coronavirus | 14th | 12 | fifteen | 13 |
| … Is there a vaccine against coronavirus that has been approved by the US FDA | 7th | 8th | 6th | 6th |
| … Wearing a face mask does nothing to limit the spread of the coronavirus | 16 | 3 | 17th | 32 |
| … Children under the age of 18 cannot transmit the coronavirus to other people | 8th | 3 | 9 | 13th |
In August, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued emergency approval for convalescent plasma for the treatment of COVID-19. In a press conference with President Trump, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn misrepresented the benefits of convalescent plasma and has since clarified his remarks. A small majority of the public (55%) has heard of convalescent plasma, which has received emergency clearance from the FDA. Among those who have heard of this new treatment for COVID-19, around three in four (74%) say more studies are needed to determine how effective it is. The majority of partisans say more studies are needed to determine the effectiveness of convalescent plasma in treating people with coronavirus.
Figure 18: Over half of adults have heard of convalescent plasma treatment. Most say more study is needed to determine its effectiveness
Commissioner Hahn's misrepresentation in his press conference with President Trump and his subsequent clarification have highlighted the issue of possible political pressures affecting the work of organizations like the FDA and CDC. The public disagrees on whether the FDA is paying enough attention to science in approving treatments for coronavirus. 43% say they pay proper attention to science, while 46% say they don't pay enough attention to science. Similarly, the public is divided over whether the CDC pays enough attention to science in issuing guidelines and recommendations related to coronavirus. 43% say they are paying proper attention and 46% say they are not paying enough attention to science.
However, when asked how much attention these two organizations pay to politics, the pluralities indicate they are paying too much attention. About four in ten (39%) say the FDA pays too much attention to policy in reviewing and approving treatments for coronavirus, while a similar proportion say the CDC pays too much attention to policy in issuing guidelines and related recommendations Paying too much attention to coronavirus.
Figure 19: About four in ten say the FDA and CDC pay too much attention to policy
The majority of Democrats say the FDA and CDC are paying too much attention to politics under the Trump administration. About four in ten independents say these organizations pay too much attention to politics. Unter den Republikanern gibt etwa jeder Fünfte (19%) an, dass die FDA unter der Trump-Administration der Politik zu viel Aufmerksamkeit schenkt, wenn sie Behandlungen für Coronaviren genehmigt, während etwa ein Drittel (35%) angibt, dass die CDC der Politik bei der Erteilung zu viel Aufmerksamkeit schenkt Richtlinien und Empfehlungen in Bezug auf Coronavirus.
Abbildung 20: Über die Hälfte der Demokraten und vier von zehn Unabhängigen sagen, dass die FDA und die CDC der Politik zu viel Aufmerksamkeit schenken
Methodik
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