New Analysis Indicates U.S. County Vaccination Rates Do Not Correspond to COVID-19 Impact Thus Far

An analysis of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) vaccination records for COVID-19 from 72% of all counties in the US shows counties with "low" community COVID-19 transmission rates (cases and positive tests) on average, vaccination rates are higher than in countries with “high” transmission rates in the community. Additionally, counties with the lowest COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people have an average vaccination rate that is higher than the counties with the highest COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people. The vaccination rates in the analysis are defined as the percentage of the relevant population in a county that was fully vaccinated.

Previous analysis has shown that the pandemic had a disproportionate impact on people of color and that blacks and Hispanics are receiving lower proportions of COVID-19 vaccinations compared to their proportions of cases and deaths and their proportions in the general population. The letter “Vaccination is Local: COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Vary by County and Key Features” provides further insight into these equity issues. Counties with a higher percentage of blacks have a vaccination rate of 13.7% compared to 16.4% in counties with a low percentage of blacks. The vaccination rate of the population in counties with a higher percentage of Hispanics is 15% compared to 15.9% in counties with a lower percentage of Hispanics.

The analysis also examines how the county's vaccination rates match the CDC prioritization recommendations and the resulting government decisions. In all states that prioritize older adults, counties with a higher proportion of people age 65 and over have a vaccination rate of 18.2% and counties with a lower proportion of the population is 14.9%.

While many states give priority to people with certain high-risk conditions, counties with a higher proportion of people with certain high-risk conditions have lower vaccination rates than counties with a lower proportion of people with these conditions (14% versus 16.7% )).

Further results of the analysis are:

• Higher noninsurance and poverty rates in the county are associated with lower vaccination rates.
• Metro counties have lower overall population vaccination rates than non-metro counties.
• In countries that voted for Donald Trump, rates are lower than in countries that voted for Joe Biden.