Scientists say to look at the COVID-19 deaths in under 65s to give a better picture

A recent research study found that major COVID-19 outbreaks in European nursing homes skewed COVID-19 death data for older age groups.

This makes cross-country comparisons of the extent of the pandemic inaccurate.

Inconsistent data makes estimating the size and severity of the coronavirus pandemic infection challenging. COVID-19 death rates are widely used as a key indicator of the size of the pandemic. However, the researchers note that COVID-19 death rates in the elderly may hamper direct comparisons of underlying transmission levels between countries. It is difficult to separate outbreaks in vulnerable populations from the public.

In countries like Canada, the UK and Sweden, over 20% of all reported COVID-19 deaths occur in nursing homes. In contrast, few COVID-19 deaths have been reported in nursing homes in South Korea and Singapore. Comparing the total number of deaths in different countries therefore provides a misleading representation of the underlying transmission level.

Scientists from the University of Cambridge and the Pasteur Institute, published in the leading journal Nature, analyzed age-specific COVID-19 death data from 45 countries and the results of 22 seroprevalence studies. The aim was to examine the consistency of infection and death patterns in several countries.

The results showed that the age distribution of deaths in those under 65 is remarkably consistent in different situations. They estimate that the infection-to-death ratio (IFR) is lowest in 5-9 year olds, with a linear increase by age in those over 30 years of age. The data can be used to provide robust estimates of the percentage of the population infected.

Among the 45 countries included in the study, scientists estimate that by September 1, 2020, around 5% of these populations were infected. However, it was believed that much higher transmission occurred in several Latin American countries. The death rate from coronavirus in Peru is 0.01% of the country's population. However, the model suggests that more than half of the Peruvian population is now infected with COVID-19. This is a much higher infection rate than expected.

The simple new modeling framework can help governments assess how the pandemic is progressing and can be applied wherever reliable age-specific death data are available. It can also be used to predict the likelihood of death from COVID-19 after infection depending on a person's age.

Simply comparing the total number of deaths in different countries can be misleading. The researchers highlight that the study of coronavirus deaths among those under 65 is more reliable and gives clearer insight into transmission rates. This allows for better comparisons between countries, which is critical to developing an ongoing strategy to combat pandemics.

Even after excluding data from those over 65, this new model shows that coronavirus death rates cannot be compared in some countries. This is because the relationship between infections and deaths is inconsistent when other common "comorbidity factors" are involved.

This research study was funded by the University of Cambridge's COVID-19 Rapid Response Grant. Scientists advise that this new model can be applied at the sub-national level and may be useful in settings where large-scale seroprevalence studies may not be feasible.

Written by Helen Massy, ​​BSc.

References:

M. O & # 39; Driscoll, G. Dos Santos, L. Wang, D. Cummings, A. Azman, J. Paireau, A. Fontanet, S. Cauchemez and H. Salje, 2020. Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS -CoV-2. Nature,.

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