Which States are Hitting the COVID-19 Vaccine Tipping Point?

As of April 19, adult COVID-19 vaccines were approved for approval in all states, and many wondered when supply will exceed demand for vaccines. A recent report looked at when the supply of COVID-19 vaccines might exceed demand in the US nationally and estimated the US will hit that point within a few weeks. A new report examines the differences between states in cumulative vaccine coverage and daily intake to better understand how the proportion of the population may ultimately change across the country.

If one looks at the proportion of adults with at least one vaccine dose by state, the daily rates of first doses administered (using a 7-day moving average), and how that rate has changed over the past week, the report shows April 29:

• 55% of adults received at least one dose of vaccine, with a low of 41% in Alabama and a high of 74% in New Hampshire. A decrease in the rate of admission has been noted in most states.
• 12 states have reached 60% or more of adults who received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, with 8 of those states being in the northeast. 13 states reached less than 50% of adults (6 of them less than 45%), 9 of them in the south.
• Most states have seen a decline in the first dose rate, albeit at different rates, suggesting that the country as a whole is reaching a turning point and supply is exceeding demand.
• States with low vaccination rates and slow daily vaccine intake are of particular concern. For example, three states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi) have vaccination rates at or below 42%, the lowest in the nation, and each vaccinate at about half the daily rate in the United States as a whole. These conditions are possibly the greatest distance from achieving adequate vaccine coverage to reduce the risk of future outbreaks.