Why are death rates from COVID-19 dropping?

A new study published in the Journal of Hospital Medicine offers insights into COVID-19 death rates over time.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of people infected has increased, followed by an increase in mortality. New York was one of the hardest hit cities at first, and medical staff were prepared to continue with the rising death toll. However, recent reports show a decline in mortality trends. To understand the causes of the decline in death rates from COVID-19, researchers from NYU's Grossman School of Medicine studied mortality or discharge from hospitals between March and August 2020.

Information was collected from 5,263 patient records treated in NYU Langone hospitals. All hospital cases included those who were 18 years of age or older and who were confirmed positive for coronavirus infection. The researchers created a model to predict death by assigning various risk factors such as age, gender, ethnicity and disease indicators, and the severity of the patient's illness after hospitalization.

The researchers note a decline in the average COVID-19 patient age and death rate.

The researchers found that the average hospital stay for most patients is around eight days. In August, the chance of death from COVID-19 infection was 22% lower than in March. The average diagnosis of chronic diseases – lung disease, diabetes, etc. – also fell from 81-72%. Mortality rates were lower in all age groups, although interestingly the mean patient age decreased from 63 to 47 years.

The decline in COVID-19 mortality cases is due to a shift in population demographics from previously older to now younger people. Younger patients with a viral infection have fewer severe symptoms, shorter disease progression, and faster recovery. However, age is only a partial factor in better survival from COVID-19. Improved disease outcomes could also be due to social distancing, wearing masks, early testing, improved treatments, and greater overall awareness.

This study used impressive data analysis techniques to provide a comprehensive view of COVID-19 death trends. However, the sample population only included those from the New York area. This limitation ignores other health systems and population demographics. Future studies are now needed to extend the investigation to more areas and people. Finding why death rates from COVID-19 are falling provides insight into work treatment and hopes to beat the virus.

Written by Melody Sayrany

References:

Horwitz, L. et al. Trends in risk-adjusted Covid-19 mortality rates in a single healthcare system. (2020). doi: 10.1101 / 2020.08.11.20172775

Nyulangone. The study explains the decline in death rates from COVID-19. EurekAlert! Available at: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/nlh-she102120.php. (Accessed October 31, 2020)

Image by athree23 from Pixabay